Sam Darnold’s Breakout and a Super Bowl LX Preview

Author’s note: This sports section contains information up to January 26th. For information about Bush athletics, you can go to BushBlazersAthletics.com. For more information on sports, you can go to ESPN.com. 

At the time I am writing this, almost all of Seattle is waking up after a night that felt like a dream. The Seahawks, a team that before this season had 60-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, look far and away like the best team in the NFL. They beat their divisional foe, the Los Angeles Rams, in the Conference Championship 31-27 in a high-scoring thriller. Now the Seahawks open the Super Bowl as the heaviest favorites in 16 years as they prepare to face the New England Patriots.

Seahawks Preview

I wrote an article two months ago about the Seahawks’ defense—a truly historic and game-breaking unit. It’s the type of unit that has not only the players to control a game but also a schematic mastermind in Head Coach Mike MacDonald, who can find an edge even if the players make a mistake. Watching that defense match up against a similarly talented and well-prepared offense battle was incredibly entertaining. However, the key factor in the Seahawks recent success has been their passing offense, especially in the conference championship. When I wrote my last Seahawks article, Sam Darnold’s passing splits, both when kept clean and when under pressure, were staggering. He was in the same territory as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in clean pockets, and was with Carson Wentz and Dillon Gabriel when pressured, averaging -0.46 EPA/dropback. That means that every time he was pressured over the course of the entire season, the Seahawks analytically lost nearly an estimated half a point. In the playoffs, his EPA/dropback when pressured has risen to -0.09. For comparison, that would place the Seahawks second in efficiency when under pressure, only behind the New England Patriots and Drake Maye. The playoffs are a small sample size—Sam Darnold has played two games, and one was against a very shorthanded San Francisco 49ers team. However, it is hard to deny that there is a new sense of confidence to Sam Darnold’s play. Below are pictures of the three touchdown passes he made against the Rams. The white jerseys surrounding him immediately stand out. On all three of these plays he made a calm throw milliseconds away from getting hit—a trait that he struggled with throughout the regular season.

It felt like the one team capable of beating the Seahawks was the Rams, but the Seahawks weathered an MVP-level performance by Matthew Stafford. The Seahawks are now favorites to win the Super Bowl against a New England Patriots team that is stumbling into the big game.

Patriots Preview

It is safe to say that winning the Super Bowl would be catharsis for most Seahawks fans. The infamous Super Bowl XLIX, where the Seahawks threw a game-losing interception at the one-yard line, stands as one of the biggest turning points in NFL history. At the time, the Seahawks stood as the NFL’s budding dynasty, back-to-back NFC champions, and benefactors of an iconic defense. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots were a past, fading dynasty. No one would have expected the Patriots to win three Super Bowls since 2015 on and the Seahawks to win none, but Malcolm Butler’s interception passed the baton to the true dynasty of the 2010s. 

Now the Seahawks look like the dominant team that will crush the Patriots’ Cinderella story. Coming off of two-straight 4-13 seasons, the Patriots broke through this year, going 14-3 and eventually winning the AFC Championship. In the playoffs, the Patriots defense has been dominant, boasting a staggering -0.42 EPA/play allowed, eight turnovers forced, and 8.3 points allowed per game. However, they have faced an incredibly easy schedule and have clear issues on the left side of their offensive line. 

New England does have an MVP candidate at quarterback. Drake Maye has broken out this year, leading a prolific deep passing attack. However, the Patriots consistently struggle with getting separation with their receivers and running the ball with their young and inexperienced offensive line. 

The Matchup

The Seahawks are better, more talented, and have been extremely dominant in the playoffs. However, there are three key areas that make this matchup more even, which are the spots the Seahawks will need to focus on to get the job done.

1. The Seahawks’ Running Game: 

Despite occasional, flashy, explosive plays by running back Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks’ rushing offense has been below average this year, with them ranking 21st in success rate and 25th in EPA/rush. Meanwhile, the Patriots have a great run defense, ranking 11th in EPA/rush and 7th in success rate. If the Seahawks can run the ball consistently, it is hard to imagine an outcome where they don’t become world champions.

2. The Patriots’ Deep Passing Game:

The redeeming quality of the Patriots’ offense is their historic deep passing game. Drake Maye is one of if not the most accurate deep passers in the NFL, and he has led the Patriots to a 1.31 EPA/dropback in 20+ air yard throws, which is the second best mark in the last ten years. The Seahawks are 13th in the NFL against deep passses—a good mark, but a relative weakness considering their elite defense this season. Seahawks fans should expect a lot of deep passes as the Patriots seek out explosive plays.

3. The Seahawks’ Pass Rush

Deep passes take a lot of time, and the Seahawks’ ferocious pass rush should plan to take advantage of that fact. The Patriots rank 28th in chip rate (when a tight end blocks an edge rusher momentarily), which has left rookie linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson exposed. This also led the Patriots to being ranked 27th in QB pressure rate allowed. Meanwhile, the Seahawks pressure the quarterback at the 5th highest rate in the league, with dominant defensive tackles Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy taking center stage. 

Overall, this Seahawks team seems poised to break through for one last game and hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The defense has been a constant all year, but the offense's emergence as an explosive passing game has allowed them to take the next step. The only thing standing in their way is a team they have history with, which is one with clear strengths but also apparent flaws. If Sam Darnold writes the conclusion to his story, the Seahawks will close the loop on this decade-long journey back to the top.