Midterms on the Horizon

What are the Midterms?

Two years into each presidential term, all United States House members are up for election. This election is called the midterms. At the same time, some Senators are up for election, as they are elected for six-year terms. The ends of those terms sometimes coincide with the midterms. Because of this, halfway through each president’s term, there is an election cycle in which both Chambers of Congress have members up for election. In the upcoming election, it’s possible to “flip” both Chambers of Congress due to the fact that a majority of seats are up for election in the Senate and, of course, all seats are up for election in the House. So, it’s possible for the Democrats to win a majority of the votes in both houses, allowing the Democrats to control the currently Republican-held Congress. 

What’s at Stake?

Any party with majorities in both Chambers of Congress would have an upper hand politically, and have ability to control the floor, forcing Republicans to take stances on controversial issues. It’s important to note that Democratic control of Congress would not necessarily result in more Democratic legislation being passed. The Senate has a procedural rule called the filibuster. The filibuster requires 60 votes to end debate on any bill, effectively requiring 60 votes to pass any non-budgetary bill (there is a path around the filibuster relating to appropriations.) Because of this, any bill in modern America requires some amount of bipartisan support. With that being said, any party in control of Congress would have a large amount of power through Congress’s other powers. In the House, for example, chairs of committees can issue subpoenas forcing people to appear before the committee as long as the subpoena relates to an investigation by Congress. It’s likely, if the Democrats take control of Congress, they will subpoena cabinet members or other influential figures in the Trump administration. Additionally, impeachment proceedings could be started with a majority of both houses. It’s unlikely that the Democrats will win the supermajority needed to impeach and convict, but it is possible that bipartisan support for impeaching and convicting cabinet members will emerge. 

Predictions by Pollsters

Nate Silver—one of the few predictors who gave Trump a non-negligible chance to win the 2016 election—runs a model that collects polls into a generalized forecast (Silver Bulletin). He gives Democrats a 73% chance to take the Senate, and a 92% chance to take the House. Online prediction and sports gambling markets Kalshi and Polymarket both give Democrats a 61% chance to take both the Senate and the House.

Races to Watch

Texas: James Talarico (D) is running for the U.S. Senate in Texas, challenging Ken Paxton (R-TX). A Democrat winning Texas would be a major shift, signifying discontent with the Trump administration 

Georgia: Jon Ossoff (D-GA), the incumbent in the U.S. Senate, is facing re-election challenged by Mike Collins (R-GA), who currently represents Georgia’s 10th District in the House of Representatives. Jon Ossoff has not commented on an attempt at the presidency come 2028, but there is speculation he wants to run.

Michigan: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (D) and Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) are competing for an open Senate seat in Michigan. The debate held over the long weekend was extremely heated.